yeah...gotta drop the feature youtube off the end of the cut n paste

Neither 1 or 2 works for me.

Need to lose the extra shit. Both work

Hey Dog, get in line.



I already fixed his shit!

BRILLIANT!

I may be in love.

Look at this contrast.

Trump vs Biden events.

https://streamable.com/fmn6uk

It's awesome and my only critique would be if she ended it by saying, "Vote for us, in December."

You've mentioned some metrics that you've used to estimate the probabilities of a Trump win. I read of another one today, not sure if you've mentioned this one, Facebook.

I was shocked to see that creepy uncle joe has only 3.7 million followers vs. Trump's 32 million followers, and 3.6 million "Likes" for joe and 30 million for Trump.

I fear biden will win, but I'm holding out hope that you're right.

BLM voter intimidation at polling place - Los Angeles
https://youtu.be/iiShHdY8sJo

Wow, that is yet another huge metric I hadn't considered but I just looked and confirmed. NOT a good sign for Biden/Harris if they are relying on the younger voter crowd. Outnumbered by followers by almost 10 to 1... Trump has 32.6 million to Bidens 3.7 million.

Also, the daily likes and message on Trump's page are crushing that of Biden's by a large margin, thousands or tens of thousands representing a lot more dialogue. Of course there's negative dialogue so it's impractical to quantify what is being stated. But there's a LOT more of it...

https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump

https://www.facebook.com/joebiden

There is a fly in the ointment, one huge problem that prevents me from holding out too much hope, hillary clinton's Facebook page only has 9.8 million "Likes" but she still garnered 63 MILLION VOTES in 2016.

And another major worry for Trump, in four years many elderly who voted for him have died off, and in that same four years a lot of 14 year old teens who were treated to a steady four year diet of media bullshit about "orange man bad" are now of voting age and will be voting...

So I still think the election is a coin toss....

Those metrics of deaths and new voters can go either way. One could just as easily make a case where a lot of old Blue Dog Dems died off and it's also true that the worst hit states for Corona were blue... And with the youth, while they are indoctrinated, I also think modern youth are far more sophisticated and get information from non-traditional sources of CNN and schools... they seek out info and conservative shows and videos have skyrocketed in the last few years. One other point, the traditional feeding ground for Dem registrations - schools - have been shut down for 6 months...

Take one important swing state of PA. Dems had far more registered voters but the GOP has out-registered them by massive numbers. So while Dems previously and still retain a total edge, Trump won PA by 44,000 votes in spite of that deficit and the GOP has walloped them on new registrations this year.

Yep, I strongly doubt it'll be a dramatic win in either direction. Any more, I just don't see anything approaching a 10% popular vote difference. Half of that would be expected, IMO.

It seems like a fair number of people in the country are in a bubble of their own making because of how heated politics has gotten, so everybody is out of touch with how everybody else will vote. All anybody can do is look at the state of the country through their biased point of view, and try to trace the results back to the talking heads that made the decision, and even that will be skewed based on bias.


One thing's for certain. Everybody I know can't fucking wait for this election to be over.

Let's also look at the other major Social Media platform, Twitter. Trump has more followers than Biden by an 8 to 1 margin.

Trump has 87.3 million followers. That's 25% of the US population... (yes, some are enemies and some are international, but still, that's a massive audience.)

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

Biden has a meager 11.6 million followers.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden

So, again, across all spectrums from Youtube views of rallies and positive v. negative votes, to following size on two major social media platforms, Trump is "beating" Biden by generally a sizeable margin, somewhere around 5 or 10 for Trump against Biden's 1 ... Those are just not good metrics for Biden.

These are very relevant platforms, particularly reflecting younger tech savvy voters who are on social media.

So on Facebook Trump outnumbers Biden by about 10 to 1 with 33 million vs. 3.7 million followers. On Twitter it's about 8 to 1 with 87 million against 11 million. Trump's rally videos get a quarter million views in a day vs. Biden's that don't get 20,000 views in several days...

I think these speak a LOT for Trump.