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_________________ NO DISASSEMBLE!
Thomas Paine wrote:
"He that would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from oppression; for if he violates this duty, he establishes a precedent that will reach to himself."
Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:45 am
SporkBoy
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Location: Deckerville Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 Posts: 2944
Real Name: Rob
"The estimated probability of recovery of virus from samples with Ct > 35 was 8.3% (95% CI: 2.8%–18.4%)."
Having worked a number of years at the early stages of the qPCR tech (mostly on the instrumentation side) this stuff is interesting to me.
Biggest pet peeve is the fractional Ct numbers that get bandied about. The way PCR works in cycles means one cycle the signals are below the detection threshold (aka negative) and the subsequent cycle a positive signal is detected. The actual cycle is then used to determine viral load (this is a simplification).
There isn't any such thing as a fraction of a cycle. It's a small point but in technical issues such things are important.
_________________ “The Democrats are playing you for a political chump and if you vote for them, not only are you a chump, you are a traitor to your race.”-Malcolm X
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:33 am
Arisaka
Site Supporter
Location: Tacoma Joined: Sat May 4, 2013 Posts: 6214
"The estimated probability of recovery of virus from samples with Ct > 35 was 8.3% (95% CI: 2.8%–18.4%)."
Having worked a number of years at the early stages of the qPCR tech (mostly on the instrumentation side) this stuff is interesting to me.
Biggest pet peeve is the fractional Ct numbers that get bandied about. The way PCR works in cycles means one cycle the signals are below the detection threshold (aka negative) and the subsequent cycle a positive signal is detected. The actual cycle is then used to determine viral load (this is a simplification).
There isn't any such thing as a fraction of a cycle. It's a small point but in technical issues such things are important.
Sporkboy, what’s your take on PCR accuracy, false positives and false negatives. Is PCR still the gold standard COVID test? How are the newer rapid tests, home tests for accuracy?
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:57 am
SporkBoy
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Location: Deckerville Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 Posts: 2944
Real Name: Rob
PCR absolutely is the gold standard but it's important to understand there are still limitations.
From the beginning through today the single biggest weak point is sample collection, prep and injection into the reaction vessel.
Working backwards from a positive PCR (this includes RT-PCR, qPCR and the various multistep flavors) through the sample prep back to source viral load is fraught with difficties.
This is the crux of the issue about high Ct (even Fauchi says Ct>35 is essentially meaningless) versus a clinically relevant viral load - one can test positive and be actually positive and producing virus but not be infectious (their immune system may actually clear the virus).
True false positives are possible for a number of reasons (I suspect cross contamination is most likely) but false negatives are a much greater likelihood and concern IMO.
Given there are number of different tests out there with their own peculiarities a blanket statement is not worth much beyond generalities.
I don't know much about the rapid home tests but sample collection and handling is tricky enough in the hands of experienced trained professionals. Swabbing a cheek for 23andMe is totally different than trying to get a couple (even 1000) virus particles. Besides those rapid home tests are antibody/antigen based and have nothing to do with PCR.
_________________ “The Democrats are playing you for a political chump and if you vote for them, not only are you a chump, you are a traitor to your race.”-Malcolm X
Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:16 am
SporkBoy
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Location: Deckerville Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 Posts: 2944
Real Name: Rob
It is worth understanding how a truly negative sample can result in a positive result.
The qPCR mechanism of detection is based on a probe (an engineered cDNA that binds to viral DNA due to matching sequence) which has a fluorescent tag and a quenching structure (these can be complex) that basically "grounds" the tag so it cannot fluoresce.
The enzymes used to perform the amplification (replication) have multiple functions - generally a proofreading function in which bound nucleic acids are "digested" which results in the fluorochrome nd/or quencher being cleaved from the probe. The now free on solution fluorochrome now is capable of being excited and it's fluorescence being detected.
This "digestion" of the probe is maximally facilitated in the presence of a matching cDNA sequence to which the probe bind. However, enzymes gonna enzyme and given enough opportunity (like 35 or more cycles) in the absence of anyplace else to bind they will degrade the probes and primers.
At some point enough degraded probes will result in a detectable signal and be interpreted as a positive viral detection.
Degraded primers are a huge problem since the specificity of PCR depends on primer and probe length as these components degrade (are made shorter by the enzyme) they lose specificity and will even bite d with each other and soon the entire reaction is "hijacked" and all sorts of nucleic acids are amplified.
Unless one follows up a PCR reaction with a secondary test (like running the amplified product on a gel) a late cycle positive test (anything over 32 cycles) should be considered false. Even sequencing the amplified products might be in ider but now we are talking about time consuming and expensive processes.
TLDR - yes, gold standard PCR tests can give false positive results. Run enough cycles and something will happen.
_________________ “The Democrats are playing you for a political chump and if you vote for them, not only are you a chump, you are a traitor to your race.”-Malcolm X
Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:38 am
Selador
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Location: Index Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 Posts: 12963
Real Name: Jeff
Gold standard is virus culture with confirmation by electron microscopy. That way you know you have a viable intact virus. Once you have a known viable virus from culture enough nucleic acid can be extracted and sequenced - definitive proof of viable virus and the exact variant.
PCR can be positive based on degraded viral RNA which is not infectious.
Standards kind of depend on exactly what result is required.
_________________ “The Democrats are playing you for a political chump and if you vote for them, not only are you a chump, you are a traitor to your race.”-Malcolm X
Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:52 pm
jackass
Site Supporter
Location: Burien Joined: Sun Sep 22, 2013 Posts: 5878
New Mexico Governor Accused of Causing ‘Modern Breadlines’ with Coronavirus Lockdown Orders
According to KOB4, the governor’s order requires businesses “with four or more rapid responses in a 14-day period have to shut down for two weeks.” That has resulted in “a dozen grocery stores around the state” to close their doors.
Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:04 pm
WaJim
In Memoriam
Location: Tacoma Wa Joined: Tue Oct 8, 2013 Posts: 16607
Real Name: George Bailey
New Mexico Governor Accused of Causing ‘Modern Breadlines’ with Coronavirus Lockdown Orders
According to KOB4, the governor’s order requires businesses “with four or more rapid responses in a 14-day period have to shut down for two weeks.” That has resulted in “a dozen grocery stores around the state” to close their doors.
Governors dont give a shit...they got peeple that get their bread and pick their maggoty apples.
_________________ "Remove one freedom per generation and soon you will have no freedom and no one would have noticed."......Carl Marx
"Let us Cross the river and sit in the shade of the trees" .....Stonewall Jackson
T. Jefferson "....the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. it is it's natural manure"
Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:07 pm
TechnoWeenie
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Location: Nova Laboratories Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2011 Posts: 18454
Real Name: Johnny 5
Maryland announced it's forming 'compliance units' to look for houses with lots of cars parked around it, to see who is violating the orders.
Fuck. That.
Try that shit up in Hagerstown or Frederick and they might have people in these 'compliance units' disappearing and never heard from again.
Quote:
Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, @MDSP is expanding its COVID-19 Compliance and Coordination Center and deploying High Visibility Compliance Units across the state. This operation will continue throughout the holiday season.
"He that would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from oppression; for if he violates this duty, he establishes a precedent that will reach to himself."
Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:25 pm
jackass
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Location: Burien Joined: Sun Sep 22, 2013 Posts: 5878
_________________ “The Democrats are playing you for a political chump and if you vote for them, not only are you a chump, you are a traitor to your race.”-Malcolm X
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