I hope it crashes hard. 50% off. Then maybe I can afford to buy a house.

All of what you point out is part of a normal cycle. Businesses like Bent Bike and Pick & Pull were working on an old business model and are being replaced by large online used parts recyclers.


Safeway has always closed stores and then opens others as their customer base moves. Car Dealerships come and go like the tide at Ocean Shores.


As for the housing in Lynnwood, yes, they're building like mad. Same for Everett, Marysville, and any build-able lot in between. People are being squeezed out of Seattle by record price increases in housing (and no room for more to be built).

One thing about most of the new housing is that it's mostly small homes on really small lots which makes me smile really big. Those who don't want a 1,000-1,500 home with itty bitty bedrooms and a yard not much larger than a parking strip will come look at houses like mine with a 1/4 acre lot, huge master bedroom, three more decent sized bedrooms, and a total of 2,050 square feet. Got word that my estimated value went up another $650 in just February alone.

Too bad I won't be able to cash in on the Exodus from Seattle as I don't intend to sell. My house payment is about half what I'd have to pay for rent somewhere else. My kids are being really nice to me though. They expect to inherit

We got our place for 250 just a couple years ago.

We can now sell it for 500, no changes. Making us think hard about moving and renting until the market pops again.

Have you researched capital gains taxes?

Married couples can exclude up to 500 from capital gains, IIRC.

Interesting, I did not know that

When I sold my house in 2006 I had owned it just over three years and was excluded from capital gain fees. I think it still might be a three year waiting period.

I would LOVE to sell my place in Des Moines I've been in for 11 years. Selling high is great buy buying high cancels that enjoyment out.

Fuck I'm getting old.

FWIW the condo in Lynnwood we bought in 2007 for $277k, we were finally able to unload for $265k back in November.

It's the single family homes that are going nuts. Condos are still not quite recovered.

I'm not buying when the market is high again...that was an expensive and drama-filled lesson.


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Our place is a condo that we picked up 3-4 years ago, and it has almost doubled in value.

I guess the real test is when we request our realtor to do a formal CMA. I will let you guys know.

At this point after a lot of discussion we've decided to sell.

Values are in line with what they should have been had the crash in '08 not happened. Got my duplex at auction in 2011 for half price. Now it is worth over 400k and the rent keeps shooting higher.

I bought in August of 2015.

Thus far it's gone up about $40k

If by August I'm able to sell it for $100k profit (rising value and I've paid some extra principal), I'm selling (2 years, married, shouldn't have to pay extra taxes) and moving me, the wife and baby into my parents place.

If the market doesn't crash within 2-3 months, I'll get an apartment and keep waiting. If it does, then yay.

The market will go down after the new property taxes are put into place.
That's when everyone starts bitching about being taxed on a $400K house when you can't give it away for $275K.

The market in Seattle will stay strong. Too many people want to be here, and more come every day. The traffic from Marysville to Fort Lewis can attest to that. I read the same doom and gloom about Obama ruining the housing market in 2011. Good thing I hedged my own bet and came out ahead then.

The answer lies in this graph. More than 1,100 people are moving to the Seattle area each week. Many of them are moving here from higher cost of living areas, such as the bay area. They are accustomed to high housing prices, high property tax, expensive car tabs, bad traffic, and increasing crime rates.

The lack of state income tax is very attractive to them.

Seattle is very similar to NYC from the perspective of available land to build on. The freeways, lakes, airports, and the sound severely limit the options for building more houses. There just isn't much land (if any) to build new subdivisions within <1 hr commute time. That means that prices will continue to go up as long as the job market in Seattle continues to be so attractive.

Increasing crime rates? Really?