So my family is wondering where the housing market will go and trying to plan accordingly. I am theorizing a 2.5-3 year slump/pop/possibly even crash with a slow stabilization before it.

I've seen rumors of large companies using Trump as a foil and public excuse to send jobs out of WA when in reality they see the writing on the wall with new wage laws, tax laws/initiatives and other regulations coming down the pipeline.

What does everyone else think? Where is the housing market headed here?

If you have a rental sell now and cash out. My house has gone up over $60k in the past 1.5 years.

Gonna pop soon

I think it's going to stay strong for at least the next couple of years, but I do think a market correction is approaching. I'm looking to buy in the next 5 years, but I'll wait until prices reset because they're just stupid now. The house next door to me was a dump 6 months ago, and the yard was an absolute mess. They've done a ton of work to it, but it's still old and small (<1,400 sq. ft.), and the layout is weird. They're asking over $400K, and the crazy thing is they'll probably get it.

A good friend of mine works for WF in finance (you come to him for money to build out commercial real estate or buy a G5 jet, not your typical mortgage)...he has been predicting a 10-20% correction in real estate prices (as generally all asset classes) in 2018/2019 for the last two years (well before Trump came into office and a lot of the most recent growth in the market).

He stands by his predictions and has narrowed his window to 2018 for the most part. With that said, his viewpoint is increasingly echoed by big name economists and other experts in the field...although, I am personally more pessimistic and believe the correction will be more like 2008 - 30%+ (if not greater).

Unlike 2008, we now have four or more issues brewing:

- housing
- student loans
- subprime car loans
- retail closures

Subprime car loans and retail closures are huge and there was some good press coverage of these issues in the last couple of days.

When we combine this with the fact that this expansion is "long in the tooth" as a real estate investor (with $500+ million in holdings) told me last week...plus the illusion that Trump will cut the corporate tax rate/dump money into infrastructure/military spending - but probably won't be able to do it...things look pretty grim for the entire market.

Check out the numbers - 30/90 credit card and car loan delinquencies are all up YTD.

I'm putting away cash and playing it safe. I look forward to buying a house for 40 percent off in about 1.5 years.

Oh, also - a lot of folks are beginning to see that the Fed also realizes that a dip is coming - they need to raise rates as aggressively as possible right now so that they have some ammo in their pocket for the 2018/2019 recession (orthodox macro economics doesn't suggest you can lower the rate beyond zero, so they have to raise it now - so they can lower it later).

Of course, the question is - whether or not they will cause the recession (or make it worse) by raising rates now.

I have a couple areas in Texas already scoped out, if that gives you an idea of what I think about this area's future... :-p

Meh, this area will be fine in the short term and the long term. Texas is better than other options but having lived in the desert before (AZ), I wouldn't do it again...well, except perhaps Flagstaff/Prescott.

My brother bought a 1200sq foot house in 2007 for $260k, and just ended up selling it three months ago for $345k and didn't do a damn thing to it.

It was on the market for all of about 3 days and had people bid past his $329,999 asking price.

Its stupid money out there now

Check out some of the higher elevations of Texas.... Fort Davis, for example.

Radio and Census people say there are something like 3000 people moving to this state a week. Long as that continues prices will go up. Hopefully it stops soon. This state is going to shit with traffic, taxes, and trashy people. This area used to be almost all farms, now most of the area is commercial buildings and housing developments. Places I used to hunt are pavement and concrete.

Shit ton of new houses/apartments being built around Lynnwood.

As for retail closures, lots of them too.
Bent Bike, Pick and Pull Auto Parts on HY 99, Safeway on 198th, Sears, are just a few.
A couple car dealerships around 208-212th, looks like Magic Toyota is closing too.

See more almost every day driving down HY 99.

When Duvall goes into annex and build mode (now), she's gonna pop soon. 2018 isn't so crazy of a guess. I blame Trump already.

We've been in our house 6 years now. Bought it at the bottom end of the last housing crash just before the first time home buyer's credit expired. It has gone up $160K in value in 6 years to an appraised value of $380K as of our appraisal last month. That's a 72% increase in 6 years. I just can't see how that kind of growth could possibly be sustainable.

We're pulling a bit of equity out now and remodeling as we'll be in this house for a while if the housing market tanks like I suspect it will.

$200K and still going up on my place.

It's crazy to sit back and think about that. So if I appreciated $160K in 6 years thats $26,666 per year. More than some people make at their jobs. Just for paying the mortgage and handling minor repairs. And I have a cheap little house. Imagine what people who bought $500K+ houses have pocketed. It's pretty insane.